Level Of Concern

A long-sleeve men’s T-shirt bearing a depiction of US Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) with the caption “Often Disappointed, Always Disappointing.” Image taken from Spreadshirt. I have a short-sleeve version of this design.

For the last few days, all anyone has been able to talk about are the U.S.-initiated strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. At least, that’s how it is currently. Who knows if people will still be talking about them next week; my bet is that they won’t be, at least in the United States. No matter how far the conflict escalates, the fact that we are or were ever involved in the war between Iran and Israel will be memory-holed by most American civilians.

On some level, it’s hard to blame them. Donald Trump is using the tried and true strategy of “flooding the zone.” If so many insane things happen that it’s hard to keep track of all of them, people will have a hard time paying attention to any of them. Therefore, many will decide to check out of politics.

Listen: I’m as sick of politics as many other people. The Facepalm subreddit is now about 85% Trump, whereas it used to have a wide variety of cringe-worthy mishaps. I understand that the United States, as one of the world’s most powerful countries, being in a democratic death spiral is newsworthy. But surely there are some newsworthy events that don’t involve Donald Trump, aren’t there?

As for TourismHell, while it used to be largely about overtourism in European destinations, is now about 70% related to the ongoing boycott of the United States by foreign travelers. And I want to be clear: Foreign tourists are well within their right to travel, or in this case not travel, wherever they like. We’re not exactly acting like welcoming hosts at the moment, at least not at the governmental level. Given the reports of foreigners being detained at customs, including that Australian journalist who covered pro-Palestine student protests, I certainly don’t blame those who decide to stay away. And honestly, a decline in foreign tourism is, practically speaking, the least of our worries at this point.

Even so, the “not visiting the USA” party has gotten a little repetitive, even if I agree that now isn’t a good time to visit the USA. But that’s beside the point. 

Anyway, I said I was sick of politics. And I realize that comparisons to Nazi Germany are pretty much beating a dead horse at this point. They’ve become cliché by now. But I’d imagine the German people were probably sick of politics in 1938. But that doesn’t mean politics were sick of them.

It’s that realization that keeps me glued to the news every single day. I’m here for the chaos, as much as I wish I were not. This could have been avoided, of course, if American voters were okay with a perfectly qualified black woman as President. But we weren’t, collectively speaking, so this is what we get instead.

The strikes on Iran are a serious crime. Trump appears to have contacted Republicans in Congress and not Democrats, but the important part is that he did not receive any Congressional authorization for this act of war. He walked right through any checks on his own power, not that such checks exist when the GOP is determined to delegate their power to Trump. Seriously, I get that they don’t care about democracy or the well-being of the country, but even I am stunned by how little they care about their own power. 

In practical terms, I don’t think this is World War III. At least, not yet. Some would argue that Democrats should saddle Trump with starting World War III in the hopes of tanking his approval ratings, but I’m not certain that will work. And even so, does it matter how low his approval ratings get? We have three and a half more years of him regardless because that’s how the idiots voted.

Yes, tensions will increase in the Middle East. Members of the American military stationed there are likely to face heightened threats to their safety. But none of America’s former allies are likely to join them in this fight. Russia is busy with the genocidal war they started in Ukraine. China has no desire to rock the boat. And India and Pakistan are more concerned with each other than what’s going on in Iran and Israel.

In short, I don’t think this conflict can reasonably be expected to escalate into what an objective observer would call World War III. I simply don’t. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t a major “crossing the Rubicon” moment.

If an authorization of military force does eventually pass a la Iraq (which is admittedly doubtful because, again, Congress doesn’t care about their own power) Trump might use a state of war to justify cracking down on protests at home. Our insanely inebriated Secretary of Defense Pete Kegseth has refused to rule out ordering the military to fire on peaceful demonstrators. If he’s not willing to say “absolutely not”, the answer is probably “absolutely yes.”

Moreover, by all accounts, Trump didn’t join the war because he felt Iran was a threat. He joined the war because he was triggered by Elon Musk humiliating him. And that’s incredibly frightening, because it shows how petty and impulsive he is.

Seriously. Who’s to say that he won’t do something even more insane next time his ego takes a hit? I realize that there’s a world of difference between striking military targets (with very few civilians present) in a country that’s long been an enemy of the United States, as opposed to randomly bombing cities in a country that used to be our closest ally. But given that Trump keeps calling Canada the “51st state”, it’s at least conceivable he might actually follow through on these threats.

Of course, I think it’s very likely that this conflict is going to be forgotten by the average American within a month. After a week or two, I don’t think most people will even remember that we struck Iran on June 21 (June 22 local time), even if our involvement in said conflict escalates significantly. It’ll be memory-holed just like mass shootings so often are in this country. And that’s by design.

You might think I’m exaggerating, but I’m not convinced that I am. Consider the recent Los Angeles unrest, in which people protested against Trump’s deportations and Trump called in the military. Another Australian journalist (not the same one who got deported while trying to visit friends in New York) was shot with a rubber bullet. It seemed like an enormous escalation at the time, but now nobody’s talking about the Los Angeles unrest anymore, nor the fact that the National Guard was sent in. But guess what?

That was two weeks ago.

Two Democratic lawmakers, state legislators from Minnesota, and their spouses were shot in their own homes in the middle of the night, with one of the couples dying. A few disgusting Senators, such as Mike Lee of Utah and Bernie Moreno of Ohio, spread conspiracy theories and mocked the assassination. As insane a milestone as that is, yet another “crossing the Rubicon” moment if that phrase still has any meaning, most people aren’t paying attention anymore. Guess what?

That was nine days ago.

Now, don’t get me wrong: I’m deeply concerned about our new involvement in Iran. And I say that sincerely, unlike a certain Senator from Maine. But compared to what’s already happened, and compared to what will surely come next week, it’s hard to give it too much oxygen. 

We’re in for a wild ride, folks.